Dan is a RE/MAX HALL of FAME recipient, only 23% of RE/MAX agents achieve this! Successfully listed and sold Luxury homes, diversified real estate portfolios. Advises and assists clients with challenging liquidations and purchases. Not uncommon to be working with foreign nationals, buyers that leverage the Sterling, Euro, and similar currency. Dan welcomes the Global community, with friends in many Nations. He brings a reputation for Integrity, Expertise, and Focus. Our customers deserve the best.

Currently provides reputable “SPOT ON VALUES” for Residential and Commercial B.P.O.'s, Broker Price Opinions, B.O.V's, Broker Opinion of Value to many lenders. Manage and Sells R.E.O., Real Estate Owned properties, distressed properties! Evaluate and negotiate solutions for sellers and lenders.

Dan and his wife relocated to North East Florida, to the community of Nocatee. Currently selling in Ponte Vedra Beach and in 55 and older communities and Luxury Real Estate.

Successfully closed on many extremely challenging foreclosures, and Short Sale. Coached and participated in Commercial and Multi-Income Family REO's in the past six years.

Elected to the Auburndale City Commission in 1986-88. Created and served as 1st Redevelopment Chair in 1988 & 89 personally put in place all the elements for the Auburndale CRA. 1990 City Commission refused to give a full vote of confidence. After a 5 year journey to personally raise funding, extensive research and study for the CRA district perimeters, and stunned with the Commissions doubt. Positioned himself to run for office again, was re-elected to Auburndale Commission, to serve 1991-93 to full fill the CRA master plan! Active with the Central Florida Development Council from conception in 1985 and sat on the board periodically for the past 25 years representing municipalities and private investors.

The positions Dan held from 1986 through 1993 enabled him to have a complete workable understanding of the State of Florida Comprehensive Plan for Future Land Use, and the benefits of intergovernmental agreements, utility franchise expansions, and public/private partnerships!

Specialties: Assets recovery, receivership, Real Estate Portfolio's, REO & Short Sale of Residential and Commercial negotiations, marketing consultant, public relations, and Broker Price Opinions for residential and commercial lenders.

In February, home prices saw the strongest annual gains on record, which, when combined with a sharp rise in mortgage rates, made it the most difficult to buy a home in fifteen years!

The report from Black Knight shows that home prices rose again in February, even as interest rates kept rising. This is despite the fact that home prices rose 19.6% from a year ago, even though interest rates kept going up.

Top 10 markets for annual home price appreciation

  1. Tampa, Florida (33.2 percent)
  2. Austin, Texas (33.0 percent)
  3. Raleigh, North Carolina (32.8 percent)
  4. Phoenix, Arizona, (32.0 percent)
  5. Nashville, Tennessee (31.5 percent)
  6. Jacksonville, Florida (29.5 percent)
  7. Orlando, Florida (28.6 percent)
  8. Las Vegas, Nevada (28.6 percent)
  9. Miami, Florida (27.9 percent)
  10. San Diego, California (27.3 percent)

Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, and Miami were all in Florida, where four of the top 10 fastest-growing cities were. But Black Knight said that the affordability crisis is worse in western coastal markets. People in Los Angeles, San Jose, San Diego, and San Francisco now have to pay more than half of the median income each month to pay for an average-priced home (50.9 percent). From 1995 to 2003, U.S. home buyers only had to spend 25.1 percent of the average income on mortgage payments for the average-priced home. That’s now 29.1% for the whole country in March.

National payment-to-income ratio

Share of median income needed to make the monthly principal and interest payment on the purchase of the average-priced home using a 20 percent down 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate. Source: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor.

The company called Black Knight said that 82 of the 100 largest U.S. markets are now less affordable than their long-term benchmarks, up from just six at first. When payment-to-income ratios rise above 21%, that usually helps to slow down the housing market, but it’s not always true.

It’s still growing, even though it’s the most affordable in 15 years, Black Knight said. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said last week that rising home prices may have caused investors to be “fearful of missing out,” which may have led to a price correction.

Distressed properties haven’t filled the gap in the inventory.

Some experts had thought that many people who put their homes on the market would sell them.

Black Knight says that so far, about 925,000 of the 8.1 million homeowners who were in forbearance have put their homes on the market, which is a lot. During the pandemic, that led to 40,000 sales a month. But those sales haven’t filled the inventory gap, and they’ve been going down in recent months.

Status of loans in forbearance as of March 22, 2022. Source: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor.

Once forbearance programs were over and mortgage payments were put on hold, people who had their mortgage payments put on hold might put their homes up for sale.

About 744,000 loans were still in forbearance as of March 22. Another 404,000 homeowners who had their forbearance programs end were delinquent on their loans and looking into “loss mitigation” options with their lenders, like mortgage modifications, to avoid foreclosure.

Some 272,000 people, most of whom were already behind on their payments before the pandemic, are still behind on their payments even though they’ve tried both forbearance and loss mitigation.

In the last month, 74,000 more homeowners have been put into foreclosure, which is 6% more than a month ago. The number of foreclosure starts fell to 25,000, which is below the level before the housing crisis.

Mortgage delinquencies rose by 1.8 percent in February, but the national rate of delinquency stayed close to pre-pandemic levels, even though the rate of delinquency rose. People have expectations of taking advantage of this potential Distressed market, however the data and the value of real estate far overrides any delinquency rates that could plague the market!

  • According to the Black Knight HPI, https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-report home prices rose 1.84% in February – nearly four times the 25-year average for the month – and the 14th month of the pandemic to see greater than 1% monthly growth
  • The average home has now increased in value by more than 34% since February 2020, with appreciation continuing to reaccelerate after a brief slowdown last fall
  • Each of the 100 largest U.S. markets experienced double-digit annual home price growth in February 2022, with three-quarters of those markets seeing continued acceleration of appreciation
  • Home price growth is reaccelerating even as interest rates continue to climb, with rates rising nearly one-third of a percent in February and more than 1.25% since the start of the year through late March
  • As a result, affordability is now at its lowest point on record outside of 2004-2007, with the monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment for the average-priced home purchase up $329 (+24%) year-to-date
  • It now takes 29.1% of the median household income to make that P&I payment, up from 19.3% just 15 months ago and a full 4 percentage points more than the 1995-2003 long-term average
  • 82 of the 100 largest U.S. markets are now less affordable than their long-term benchmarks, up from six at the start of the pandemic
  • In recent years, a payment-to-income ratio above 21% has worked to cool the housing market, but record-low inventory continues to fuel growth even in the face of the tightest affordability in 15 years

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – April 4, 2022 – Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. This month’s report examines the continuation of record-breaking home price growth – even with interest rates rising sharply – and the mounting affordability pressures resulting from these competing dynamics. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, February 2022 saw the largest annual home price gains on record.

“Home prices grew by 1.84% in February – nearly four times the 25-year average for the month – and they did so while interest rates continued to climb throughout the month,” said Graboske. “The month’s 19.6% year-over-year growth marked the highest annual rate of appreciation on record, with the average home having now increased in value by more than 34% since February 2020, just prior to the pandemic. After a brief cooling last fall, appreciation has been reaccelerating for the last four months. Indeed, a full three-quarters of the 100 largest U.S. markets – all 100 of which registered double-digit annual appreciation in February, it should be noted – are seeing reacceleration of home price growth. And that is all while interest rates climbed nearly one-third of a percent in February and are now up more than 1.25% since the start of the year.

“This combination of accelerating growth and sharply rising interest rates has resulted in the tightest affordability in 15 years. In fact, outside of the skewed 2004-2007 market, the 29.1% of median income now required to make the P&I payment on the average-priced home bought with 20% down is the highest share in 25 years. Entering the year, a prospective homebuyer who could budget a $1,700 monthly P&I payment – roughly the amount required to buy the average home today, excluding taxes and insurance – could afford a $497,000 house. With Freddie Mac reporting the average 30-year rate at 4.42% on March 24, that same borrower can now afford less than $425,000. The average P&I payment has increased 24%, or approximately $329 per month, while at the same time, the average homebuyer’s buying power has dropped by 15%. In the recent past, a payment-to-income ratio above 21% has worked to cool the housing market and regulate prices, but today’s record-low inventory continues to fuel significant growth even in the face of the tightest affordability in 15 years.”

As the current inventory crisis is key to these unprecedented housing market conditions, this month’s Mortgage Monitor also looks at what many had thought might serve as a release valve to the current shortage – namely potentially hundreds of thousands of homeowners coming out of forbearance listing their homes for sale as a resolution. The report finds that, of the 8.1 million homeowners who had been in forbearance at some point during the pandemic, there have been 2.3 million (28%) liquidations thus far. Of these, 925,000 have paid off their loans in full through the sale of their home. While this has worked out to an average of 40,000 such sales per month during the pandemic, it has not filled the inventory gap and has been trending downward in recent months. Less than 750,000 loans remain in active forbearance, with another 400,000 that are no longer in forbearance but still involved in active loss mitigation efforts. Recent post-forbearance liquidations have leaned more heavily toward cash-out refinances, with homeowners perhaps seeking to reset themselves financially.

About the Mortgage Monitor

The Data & Analytics division of Black Knight manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the Black Knight HPI and Collateral Analytics’ home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of U.S. residential properties down to the ZIP-code level. In addition, the company maintains one of the most robust public property records databases available, covering 99.9% of the U.S. population and households from more than 3,100 counties.

Black Knight’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/

About Black Knight

Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage lending and servicing and real estate industries, as well as the capital and secondary markets. Businesses leverage our robust, integrated solutions across the entire homeownership life cycle to help retain existing customers, gain new customers, mitigate risk and operate more effectively.

Studying 100 markets, the paper from the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University analyzed the results. It comes as no surprise that housing demand rose substantially in 2021, with homes across the country selling for much more than previous data would suggest.

Buyers fleeing pricey coastal cities like New York and San Francisco, according to the study, are important contributors to the surge in Florida and elsewhere. Strong sellers markets have also been produced by rising demand and a limited supply.

Eight Florida markets rank among the top 50 nationally in a residential real estate category that, while lucrative for sellers, it doesn’t set well for the long term. The data point? Highest premium paid on an average home sale.

Business Observer March 3. 2022

Note these are averages, and not specifically noted, and some may say included in the Jacksonville area. Ponte Vedra, and Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida where “The Players” tournament and “Nocatee” an extremely unique and one of the top twelve sought after communities in the nation! Has it’s own impressive data.

Naples Florida boasts that the Median Listing home price $590,000 up 31% Median home sold price: $545,000! Where as Nocatee Florida Median Listing home price in February 2021 $585,000 and February 2022 sold price is $790,000, approximately a 35% increase. Yes it’s true the St. John’s County Florida is a hot spot, shall I say an independent “Bubble in Northeast Florida” sustainable by their infrastructure, and rarely included separately in data completed by many major resources.

Note Boise, Idaho has seen the highest premium paid on an average home sale, according to Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business, with buyers paying a 78.4% premium over the expected home price.

February 25, 2022

With housing inventory at an all-time low, contract signings decreased 5.7% month over month in January—the third consecutive month for a drop, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Friday. NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, is down 9.5% compared to a year earlier. All four major regions of the U.S. posted annual declines in activity. “Buyers are still having a difficult time finding a home,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Yun says home buyers also are contending with escalating home prices and rising mortgage rates, which have increased by more than a full percentage point over the last six months, according to Freddie Mac. “Given the situation in the market—mortgages, home costs, and inventory—it would not be surprising to see a retreat in housing demand,” Yun says.

NAR predicts economic conditions could be volatile in the coming months as the Federal Reserve ends its asset purchase program in March, which could drive up interest rates. Also, Russia’s conflict with Ukraine likely will lead to a crisis in global oil supply and further accelerate inflation, NAR notes. That said, “there’s also the possibility that investors may flee toward safer U.S. Treasury bonds, which may result in temporary short-term relief to interest rates,”Lawrence Yun Chief Economist and oversees the Research group at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Real estate property taxes are critical funding sources for local, state, and federal budgets. The pandemic continues to impact the country, but the average rate of property tax delinquency improved in 2021, falling to 5.9%, according to a new report from CoreLogic, which analyzes national and state real estate property tax delinquency levels spanning from 2011 to 2021.

Still, some areas of the country are seeing an increase in delinquency. “Increases and decreases in tax payment delinquency rates are often early indicators of further economic change,” researchers note.

The states with the highest average property tax delinquency rates in 2021 were:

  • Mississippi: 15.6%
  • Delaware: 14.5%
  • Virginia: 10.5%
  • New Jersey and Massachusetts (tied): 10.2%
  • Washington, D.C.: 10.1%

On the other hand, the states with the lowest average property tax delinquency rates in 2021 were:

  • North Dakota: 1.2%
  • Minnesota: 1.3%
  • Wisconsin: 1.5%
  • Illinois: 1.8%
  • Utah: 2.2%
Source Realtor Magazine 3/2022

In most U.S. housing markets, owning a home still costs less than renting, despite skyrocketing median home prices, according to a new study. In 58 percent of the 1,154 U.S. counties studied using data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, owning a median-priced home was more affordable than renting a three-bedroom property on average, according to an ATTOM Data Solutions report released on Thursday, the 6th of January!

Renting, on the other hand, was determined to be the most cost-effective option in the majority of large urban locations. “Home prices are rising faster than both rents and wages, while wages are rising faster than rents. Because of this, property values have reached new highs, as Attom’s Chief Product Officer Todd Teta said in a press release.

Because it still takes up less of their wages, home ownership is still the more affordable option for most employees in a large chunk of the country.” However, growing wages and low mortgage rates have offset the effect of rising property prices in nearly 90% of the country.

Home prices rose an average of 1% across the country last year, but income growth has averaged 8%, and mortgage rates have held steady at approximately 3%.

According to the survey, home prices are rising faster than salaries in much of the country. There are counties with over a million inhabitants that have discovered that renting is more cost-effective than buying in the nation’s most populated metropolis, whereas suburban and rural areas found that buying was their most cost-effective option.

In 35 of the 42 counties with a population of one million or more people or more studied in the survey, renting is more affordable than owning, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix, San Diego, and Orange County. Houston, San Antonio, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Tampa, according to Attom, are all less expensive for homeowners.

The rental and ownership markets in the South and Midwest are still the most cost-effective, while those in the West and the Northeast are among the most expensive in terms of both renting and owning a property.

TETA forecast that renting will become the most cost-effective alternative, but income growth and low mortgage rates will keep homebuying in favor for the time being. Renters could have a big role in slowing price increases in 2022, as the pattern is gradually shifting.” There’s only a certain amount of price inflation left until renting becomes more affordable,” he asserted.

However, rising incomes and interest rates of approximately 3% are enough to offset recent price increases and keep ownership on the more affordable side compared to renting at least for the time being,” says the report.

I have been asked almost every day for the past three weeks when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates how will it effect mortgage rates. I found that Holden Lewis describes these questions fairly clearly. I will be posting some more about Mortgage rates and some projections soon.

The Federal Reserve is one of many influences on mortgage rates, along with inflation, economic growth and other elements.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it does affect mortgage rates indirectly.

Mortgage rates are determined by many elements, including the inflation rate, the pace of job creation, and whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is a factor, too, and is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. Click here to see current mortgage rates

What the Federal Reserve does

The Federal Reserve is the nation’s central bank. It guides the economy with the twin goals of encouraging job growth while keeping inflation under control.

The FOMC pursues those goals through monetary policy: managing the supply of money and the cost of credit. Its main monetary policy tool is the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge one another for short-term loans. Although there’s no such thing as “federal mortgage rates,” the federal funds rate influences interest rates for longer-term loans, including mortgages.

The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks, to tweak monetary policy. Most meetings result in no change to the federal funds rate. At the conclusion of each meeting, the committee releases a statement explaining its reasoning. Three weeks later, the meeting’s minutes are released, serving Fed nerds even more details.

Do mortgage rates follow Fed rates?

The Fed and the mortgage market move like dance partners: Sometimes the Fed leads, sometimes the mortgage market leads, and sometimes they dance on their own.

The federal funds rate and mortgage rates usually move in the same direction. But it’s hard to say whether mortgage rates follow the Fed’s actions or the other way around

The FOMC prefers to give investors a heads-up whenever it plans to raise or cut short-term interest rates. Members of the committee advertise their intentions by sprinkling hints into their public speeches. By the time the committee meets, there’s usually a consensus among investors as to whether the Fed will cut rates, raise them or keep them unchanged. As that consensus solidifies before an FOMC meeting, mortgage rates usually drift in the direction that the Fed is expected to move. Often, by the time of the meeting, mortgage rates already reflect the expected rate change.

At the same time, mortgage rates move up and down daily in reaction to the ebb and flow of the U.S. and global economies, which are the same developments that the Fed responds to. Occasionally, the Fed and mortgage rates move in opposite directions.

What is the current federal funds rate?

The target federal funds rate has been a range of 0% to 0.25% since an emergency rate cut on March 15, 2020. The emergency was the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruption in economic activity that resulted.

“The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook,” the rate-setting committee explained.

The Fed began to buy hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to keep cash in the financial system and to keep long-term interest rates down.

In its regular meeting ending Dec. 15, 2021, the FOMC said “indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen” due to progress on vaccinations and strong policy support. It added that a resurgence of COVID-19 cases has slowed the economic recovery.

The central bank reiterated that it aims to achieve an inflation rate of 2% over the long run. Because the inflation rate has exceeded 2% for a few months, the rate-setting committee said the Fed would curtail purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. These bond purchases, designed to hold down interest rates, are likely to end in March 2022.

After ending the bond purchases, the Fed is expected to raise the federal funds rate for the first time since 2018. Three or four quarter-point increases are expected, according to the committee’s projections.

Federal funds rate and HELOCs

HELOCs Home Equity Line of Credit.

Although the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates, it does have a direct influence on the rates charged on home equity lines of credit, which typically have adjustable rates.

Interest rates on HELOCs are linked to the Wall Street Journal prime rate, which is the base rate on corporate loans by the largest banks. The prime rate, in turn, moves with the federal funds rate.

When the FOMC cuts the federal funds rate, interest rates on HELOCs go down, too. The March 15, 2020, reduction of one percentage point saved $100 a year — or $8.33 a month — on the interest-only payment of a HELOC with a $10,000 balance. It reduced the prime rate to 3.25% from 4.25%.

About the author:Holden Lewis is a mortgage reporter and spokesperson who joined NerdWallet in 2017. He previously wrote for Bankrate. He has written articles about mortgages since 2001. He has been president of the National Association of Real Estate Editors and has won writing awards from NAREE, the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, and the Society of Professional Journalists.

78% of community bank executives expect the housing market to crash by 2026.

Ben Winck and Andy Klersz Oct. 13, 2021 10:46 am

I’ve been continually asked, are we in a Housing Bubble? AND The Real Estate Market is going to crash! Let’s drill down on this topic, and I might add, this is not 2008! There are NO apples and oranges to compare from! I honestly believe we are on sound ground, no real worries! I listened to our experts and was preparing in 2007-8.

Let’s look at the convictions in my research, yes we certainty have speculation and the “Social Media Buzz!” A recent pod cast by Nick Baily CEO for RE/MAX International invites two key note speakers to weigh in on all the uncertainty, the panic driven market, and what’s the real story!

Chief economist Dr Lawrence Yun National Assoc. of Realtors

Dr. Lawrence Yun

                Indications from the Federal; reserve is tapering, means buying less mortgage loan securities This means the mortgage industries must find other buyers, is it Wall Street. Chinese Government, Teacher’s pension fund! They need to find buyers that the Federal reserve is not purchasing. This will require paying higher interest rates. This will trickle down to the consumer.

                If interest rates decline in two years or three years, That’s not necessarily good news. It means we have some economic damage.  “Recession, Job Losses!” 

Question is, “will we see homes that may experience loss in value?

Ward Morrison

Ward Morrison answers this by saying “we may see a decrease in appreciation but not decrease in value. Factors that weigh in on this are the 72 million in Millennials, Gen Z behind them is 68 million! Millennials are in their prime home buying cycle. Gen Z is going to enter it soon, so Supply and demand will be leaning towards demand.  Families are going to form, their going to want houses, and Ward doesn’t believe we’ll see a decrease in some markets.  Perhaps a decrease in appreciation will continue to be driven by these markets.

                The Gen Z will eventually be moving away from mom and dad and want their own housing, it may be different than what we may relate to, and the market will accommodate their demand. We are 6 million houses behind in construction. How is this going to impact us?

“Social media BUZZ!”

 From @SMHatLibs         April 22 2021 a Mortgage Banker and Realtor for 25 years, I’ve studied the financial markets closely. It is my prediction the housing bubble will pop again in September 2022. If you have property to sell in the next 10 years, do it before next summer and let someone else hold the bag. 

Lawrence’s reply to this is, “we do not have those risky, sublime mortgages, in this housing cycle as we did in this last cycle. In 2005, 2006 etc. we were lending to people that did NOT have sufficient income and we didn’t ask for supportive history for why they qualified to step into a mortgage!”

 In this cycle we have sound buyers, we are also in a job market with better positions, saving rates are increasing, equities been increasing in home ownership, there’s a lot of sound positives that are going to keep a bubble from happening.

Ivy Zelman

Ivy Zelman who spoke at Inman Connect in Las Vegas.     “It’s the incremental buyer that you need to worry about,” she said.  “Realtor’s need to convince the existing prospective seller that now is a good time to sell. If (clients) thought (they) could double what they paid, that opportunity is going to start to compress.  “Zelman does a great job on prediction of housing!”

Lawrence suggests In terms of expecting the huge price gain or doubling in home values in a short duration of three to five years, that’s not going to happen, we’ll see more of a 3 to 5% growth.  One interesting thing to watch when inflation begins to remain stubbornly high, some people say well that means higher interest rates. Certainly, higher interest rates will pop in home prices but what’s important to note, when inflation occurs rents rise. Because of rise in rents that provides a good buffer room for home prices to remain stable. We saw this in the early 1980’s when mortgage rates were rising very fast home sales did go down. Home values held on because the rents were rising. As an economist it’s not a good thing but if one wants to hedge against inflation, if one is worried about inflation best place to go is real estate.

Blessings are coming @Dxron2

                Housing bubble. The lower the interest rate goes the closer it gets to bursting….then there is the 2.5 million homes behind on their mortgage payments who will be foreclosed upon some time in 2022!

Lawrence reminds us that mortgage forbearance was near 5 million and is only around 2 million today. Mortgage delinquency rose similarly however this occurred when we lost 20 MILLION during the lockdown. People with no jobs, restaurants closed, a divergence people not paying mortgages but virtually no foreclosures. We had 5 million in mortgage forbearance. Today’s number is 2 million. It’s his opinion the forbearance rage will go down to 1 million in a few months.  Their mind set is, I want to keep my home, and I will get a job and the lenders are working with them. Lawrence notes, foreclosures will arise because we know the nature of the economy is always disruptive. Importantly note, there are ready buyers, whether it’s first-time buyers, the millennial generation looking for that starter home, to real estate investors who are just sniffing around for any foreclosure properties to come on to the market. So these properties will not linger on the market and will be snatched up quickly.

                Ward agrees that he does not believe that’s going to happen, the savings rate has been high during this period of time, and perhaps not making their payments out of choice not necessity and believes the forbearance gave them an opportunity to set aside some payments, and not like in the 3008 crisis, they have a lot of equity in their homes and haven’t been using their home as an ATM!  A harsh way to call it, however he believes they’re NOT going to walk away from equity. Last time we had a lot of short sales, and does not foresee that happening like Lawrence related to. Mortgage restrictions are tight to people really who really can’t afford to buy.

We do still have 33% believe we will have a crash eventually, 51% believe it will normalize, and 16% say we are not in a bubble.

Ward in conclusion, be educated by a professional, when rates start to pick up, understand rates are still at historic lows and it’s not necessary to panic buy, and to shop smart. Begin shopping for the best mortgage rates with the mortgage broker you feel comfortable with, so you can compete against the cash buyer out there. It’s important to work with an educated Realtor and Mortgage broker that meets your needs with all the new changes that are going to happen.

Keep in mind the multiple offer environment is subsiding and will eventually disappear. It’s also important to understand if your selling, that those 20 offers are going to become one or two offers and if priced right will be the one or two you should be looking at. 

Lawrence in conclusion.  We have a labor shortage across the country weather construction workers, warehouse workers, at the restaurants, hotels everywhere except Realtors, we continue to see the rise in the number of realtors enter the profession. Maybe some people have the wrong notion that it’s a glamorous profession. They put on nice clothes and sells a home maybe this is the perception, but the reality is it’s a very tough business and we know 20% do exceptionally well and 80 percent, well it’s a extreme challenge! So don’t be that 80 percent who believe they can do this. Educate yourselves, place your license with a reputable broker, and be that 20 percent that protects their client’s best interest.

According to Florida Atlantic and Florida International University research, properties in South Florida were valued over 80% more in 2007 than their long-term price trend. The overvaluation is now 18%. The experts say South Florida homes are overvalued, but not as much as other counties.

“We keep rising, yet we are still low. This is a far cry from 15 years ago, says Ken H Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University. The moderate overvaluation implies that buyers and sellers learnt about the property collapse more than a decade ago. The market does not appear to be headed for a severe recession, as in 2008, when houses in the collapse phase were undervalued by at least 28%.

Mike Pappas

The researchers predict a housing market peak and price stabilization.  When home values start to fall, interest rates will play a role, says Keyes Company president Mike Pappas. As interest rates climb, some purchasers will exit the market.

South Florida is the state’s least inflated housing market. Tampa is about 38% overvalued, Fort Myers is 34%, and Jacksonville is 28%. The researchers looked at 100 of the country’s largest metro areas to see which are overvalued based on past pricing trends and which should be.

Eli Beracha

Nationally, Boise, Idaho; Austin, Texas; Ogden and Provo, Utah; and Phoenix appear to be nearing price peaks, suggesting eventual price stabilization. Those places are also among the priciest. According to Eli Beracha, head of Florida International University’s Hollo School of Real Estate, buying in an overpriced market can lead to long-term financial losses.

“Reselling a house at a profit when values settle is difficult.”

Other research shows a market cooling from hot to warm. Realtor.com expects South Florida home prices will rise roughly 6% over the next year, indicating a market recovery after a year of extraordinary price surge.

Ward Morrison President  of Motto Franchising, LLC  First Real Estate Mortgage Franchise in the Nation   Estimates interest rates rise to  4% for 2022.  It’s not in stone and should not impact home buyers.

 Eli Beracha, head of Florida International University’s Hollo School of Real Estate, Buying in an overpriced market can lead to long-term financial losses.

Realtor.com expects South Florida home prices will rise roughly 6% over the next year

Ken H Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University! “We keep rising, yet we are still low. This is a far cry from 15 years ago.”

You want a sound choice, in terms who will represent your best interest, net you the best return on the sale of your home, and without doubt can provide the same services as Opendoor, Redfin, Ibuyer companies, and Zillow, I’ve always pulled more supportive data than Zillow could ever provide, and for their investors to actually buy stock when then took this move, unnerving to say the least. So many of the sell quick and leave all your worries to us? “If it’s too good to be true, IT’S NOT!” I’ve practiced these exit models for my clients for years. It’s nothing new, however the equity you leave on the table when you sell to these companies is far “LESS” than Our Michael Paul team will provide. Call me: 904-671-9225 Dan Swing! Representing Northeast Florida.

There is much to be grateful for among those who owned property and worked during the pandemic.

Consumer confidence and home values are rising across much of the country. Unfortunately, our country is divided along numerous lines.  Even though the pandemic may have been beneficial to some, it has also been detrimental to others, both economically and humanely. In many cases, what we take for granted is only available to those around the globe on their “to-do” lists. Keeping this in mind, I pray most will choose to be appreciative for our many benefits.

Although the holidays bring joy, there is a tinge of worry.  Today’s United States is vastly different from the one that existed only a few short years ago.  Our society and economy are shifting in a troubling direction, and the lack of leadership at all levels of government suggests a bleaker future.

Top economists, and real estate professionals predict elements that will affect the future of real estate:

1.Violent crime has increased significantly

There has been a rise in crime in the United States, whether it’s a car crashing into a bunch of people, smashing, and snatching robbery, or the overall increase in violent deaths.  A 25 percent increase over 2019 is expected in homicide rates for 2020, according to FBI data.

“The reasons for the substantial spike in violence are a matter of speculation and are likely to remain poorly understood for years to come,” the Washington Post stated in July of 2021.  More importantly we are experiencing organized numbers of thieves attacking and stealing as much merchandise as possible and it’s becoming significant. With this in mind many people are rethinking where they reside or even deciding not to purchase a home in an area, they fear will have a high crime rate

2. Climate Change

Regardless of whether you believe in global warming or not, our climate is changing.

A growing number of natural disasters are being exacerbated by the changing climate. Who decides these phenomena, and initiatives in potential prevention? These United States are taking extreme action to accommodate measures to lessen the stress to the environment.  However, our efforts are strongly countered 10-fold or more by Asia and Russia!  These two regions produce the most pollutants and the U.S. continues to purchase their products and drive these countries to produce more pollutants with no end in sight!

The American public is becoming extremely unbalanced and the consequences overwhelming to accommodate so much radical change in accommodating global climate change.  The United States Congress must revisit their strategy and find less strain on the American public or we may see a whole new deteriorating environment.

Even the most casual observer can see that we will need to make significant adjustments in the location and construction of our homes.  In addition, we must strategize for dealing with individuals who now reside in danger zones. Rebuilding is being hampered by restrictions in Future Land Use criteria already in place and making it extremely difficult to provide permits, which raises a new set of challenges.  

3. Disparity in wealth in this United States

There is a significant divide between the rich and poor.  It’s not hard to find information regarding how wealth is being redistributed in the United States by searching for “wealth in America” online.  The pandemic has simply widened the disparity between the wealthy and the poor, and this redistribution comes at the expense of the vulnerable.


We should expect a ripple effect from rising housing prices and a large percentage of Americans receiving some form of government assistance.  An obvious example is the expanding number of homeless tent cities that can be found in most major American cities.

4. Cyber crime is rising.

No one appears to be safe from cyber-crime, despite our best efforts.  A rush has been put on title firms and others in the real estate industry to make certain that transactions are secure, and payments are delivered to the correct recipients.  From Facebook hackers to obtaining credit card I.D.’s on the dark web, compromising a significant amount of victims, creating credit challenges for many looking to buy their first home. Fake websites soliciting goods that do not exist and almost impossible to catch and prosecute.

5. Racial tensions

Racial tensions remain high in the United States today.  Racism in the United States has risen sharply in the wake of recent tragedies.  In addition to whites and blacks, we see other ethnic groups influenced by this. No matter how many demonstrations, we see groups exploiting this and looting small and large businesses.  

When it comes to home ownership, minorities have a significantly lower rate of home ownership than their white peers.  For at least 10 decades both political parties have made attempts to remedy this challenge with o known solutions, despite the existence of fair housing regulations.

6. Problems with the supply chain

Containers being washed overboard at sea; container ships unable to unload; China building super ports, factory shutdowns; wildfire-induced lumber mill closures; global stainless-steel shortages; labor shortages everywhere; rising energy costs; a 30-year high inflation rate — it’s a perfect storm.  The supply chain is in chaos.

As a result, there are fewer new construction starts, considerably fewer home completions, more time spent on home preparation for sale, and less time spent on home remodeling due to a lack of inventory sellers are finding there is no need to prepare needed elements in the home before selling.

Recently, a recent excursion to an IKEA in the Jacksonville Florida area, found many furniture items that were temporarily unavailable, as well as many counter alternatives, appliances, lighting fixtures and other upgrade-related products, for example.

Plastic plants, on the other hand, appeared to be plentiful.  A recent trip to Home Depot indicates they have no shortage in inventory.  Is this a myth, a rumor to create panic, or something else?

7. The labor market is becoming smaller.

In this case, there are three major concerns:  It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find skilled tradespeople in metropolitan regions due to more and more illegal immigrants taking these jobs away from legalized US Citizens in the construction trade and there is no true policing policies being taken to prevent it! This is encouraging economic adjustments or retirement of older workers.  For geopolitical or financial reasons, many of the city’s current tradespeople are either unable or unwilling to relocate to urban regions.

Students graduating from high school are increasingly choosing university and tech careers over vocational schools because of our country’s focus on the technology industry.

When it comes to finding qualified contractors, the home market is in a state of severe stress.

8. The lack of effective answers to the housing shortage.

Another symptom of a housing issue is that more and more people are becoming homeless.  Additionally, Redfin points out that rents are expected to rise, and recent data indicates this is happening now, which will only worsen the situation.

Many landlords have had to give up and liquidate their rental properties because of the pandemic-related moratoriums on evictions and the resulting decrease in rent payments.  As prices continue to rise, more and more investors are selling to maximize their profits.

A growing number of developers are resisting low-cost housing rules, claiming that rising building costs and permission fees are reducing profitability, which no longer justifies their ongoing building in the huge multi-unit market.  I’m aware of no city or town that has an effective strategy for dealing with the rising housing crisis.

State-level taxes (California) are leading landlords to find creative solutions, such as refinancing properties to the max, taking the money out of California and not leaving enough cash flow to appropriately maintain the properties.

9. Widening chasm between liberals and conservatives

My neighbors have made the decision to leave their current location and relocate to regions that better reflect their political beliefs.  When it comes to political tensions, they’re fed up with it.  People who want to live in locations where they are more likely to be politically aligned are looking to do so.

In this case, there are two essential concerns: If we had neighborhoods that were well-balanced in terms of political viewpoints, we would have a much healthier country.

Destination cities like (Charleston, South Carolina), (Savannah Georgia) (San Antonio, and Austin, Texas) to name a few, are experiencing enormous increases in property prices because of supply and demand economics, which has the local population extremely frustrated and angry.

The COVID-19 immunizations are dividing opinion, and that’s just going to get worse.  Vaccination has a similar effect to the prior item, even though it is divided along party lines in some ways.  More tragically, the vaccination crisis is causing families to fall apart and friends to distance themselves from one another.  As a result, many families are relocating from places where the vaccination rate is low to areas where the rate is high.

10. There are increasing concerns about the insure ability of automobiles and other vehicles.

Several insurance companies have withdrawn from the market as the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes rise.  It’s getting increasingly difficult to obtain insurance in high fire or flood zones, which will have an impact on the ability to own or develop properties in specific areas.

During this time of year, I want to emphasize once again how fortunate we are as a nation.  I’d like to express my gratitude.  In the meantime, I’m concerned that we’re losing progress because we can’t seem to deal with these new issues efficiently.  These problems appear to have been exacerbated by the pandemic, according to some observers.

It seems to me that COVID-19 has just pushed issues that had been simmering to the surface. Because of the pandemic, these challenges have been brought to light in an unprecedented way.  It’s my hope that we can all work together to bring America back from the brink of disaster by putting aside our ideological differences and trying to find common ground.