Is a recession lurking?

Half of the real estate economists and experts surveyed by Zillow the past 2nd quarter believe that the next recession is coming in 2020, according to the second quarter Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, recently released.

Of the 100 real estate experts surveyed, half said a recession was likely to come in 2020 with 19 percent specifically pinpointing the third quarter of 2020 — which lines up directly with the months leading up to the presidential election. Thirty-five percent of those surveyed said they believe a recession is likely in 2021, meaning 85 of 100 experts believe a recession is coming in the next two years. But they don’t think housing will be the main cause.

“Panelists were asked to choose and rank up to three economic and/or political factors likely to trigger the next recession, from a list of 10,” the study states. “Trade policy, a geopolitical crisis and a stock market correction were the most commonly chosen factors, respectively.”

“A housing slowdown was among the factors rated as least likely to cause the next recession, chosen by just 12.6 percent panelists that offered an opinion,” the survey continues.

Although experts say housing won’t cause of the recession, the potential slowdown will have an impact. More than half of those surveyed said they expect home buying demand in 2020 to be significantly lower than in 2019, while about a third of those surveyed said they expected it to be about the same.

“Home sales have been sluggish to start 2019 compared to the beginning of 2018, despite conditions that are more favorable for buyers now than they have been in quite some time,” the survey says.

The combination of slowing demand and an impending recession could be good news for potential buyers in the short-term and cause further slowdowns in overall U.S. home value appreciation going forward.

Panelists, on average, said they expect annual growth to be around 4.1 percent at the end of the year and slow further to 2.8 percent in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021.

The results of this year’s survey line up with a similar survey from May 2018, when more than half of the economists surveyed said they believed a recession was coming in 2020.

Home values are currently growing at a 6.1 percent annual pace, according to the survey, but growth has slowed in each of the past four months compared to the month prior. Panelists expect that trend to continue.

The results of this year’s survey line up with a similar survey from May 2018, when more than half of the economists surveyed said they believed a recession was coming in 2020.

Author: danswingblog

Dan has celebrated over 19 years as a full-time Realtor. Successfully listed and sold Luxury homes, diversified real estate portfolios. Advises and assists clients with challenging liquidations and purchases. Not uncommon to be working with foreign nationals, buyers that leverage the Sterling, Euro, and similar currency. Dan welcomes the Global community, with friends in many Nations. He brings a reputation for Integrity, Expertise, and Focus. Our customers deserve the best. Currently provides Residential and Commercial B.P.O.'s, Broker Price Opinions, B.O.V's, Broker Opinion of Value to many lenders. Manage and Sells R.E.O., Real Estate Owned properties, distressed properties! Evaluate and negotiate solutions for sellers and lenders. Developed, operated and sold a Florida "AWARD WINNING" Ad Agency! 2010 & 11 Commercial Agent of the year. RE/MAX Paramount Properties. Relocated to Tampa in 2012, enjoyed retirement for 6 months. Saw unethical practices by some Realtors and choose to reverberate our profession in the Tampa area. In four years built his business to as many as four (4) transactions monthly. Mortgage brokers were calling Dan a Superstar in Real Estate. Dan and his wife relocated to North East Florida, to the community of Nocatee. Currently focusing on 55 and older communities and Luxury Real Estate. Successfully closed on many extremely challenging foreclosures, and Short Sale. Coached and participated in Commercial and Multi-Income Family REO's in the past six years. Elected to the Auburndale City Commission in 1986-88. Created and served as 1st Redevelopment Chair in 1988 & 89 personally put in place all the elements for the Auburndale CRA. 1990 City Commission refused to give a full vote of confidence. After a 5 year journey to personally raise funding, extensive research and study for the CRA district perimeters, and stunned with the Commissions doubt. Positioned himself to run for office again, was re-elected to Auburndale Commission, to serve 1991-93 to full fill the CRA master plan! Active with the Central Florida Development Council from conception in 1985 and sat on the board periodically for the past 25 years representing municipalities and private investors. The positions Dan held from 1986 through 1993 enabled him to have a complete workable understanding of the State of Florida Comprehensive Plan for Future Land Use, and the benefits of intergovernmental agreements, utility franchise expansions, and public/private partnerships! Specialties: Assets recovery & receivership, Real Estate Portfolio's, REO & Short Sale of Residential and Commercial negotiations, marketing consultant, public relations, and Broker Price Opinions for residential and commercial lenders.

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